Builder Confidence Declines In June as Fed Ponders Rate Increase
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month growth rate has been unchanged at 10.3% since March. Secured loan lending for June was also below May's figure at .0 billion, but above the previous six month average. month growth rate continued to increase marginally, by 0.1% to 11.0%. The increase in consumer credit of .8 billion was lower than in May. According to the official figures, there was hardly any growth in credit card lending in June, compared with a .2 billion increase in May.
Home Equity Loans (AXcess News) Washington - Home builders across the nation are growing concerned over the housing market and a recent poll indicates that activity in the new home sector will decline in June. Influencing that outlook is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when the monetary committee meets next week. A rise in interest rates then would effect mortgage rates and slow new home construction further still.
The declining interest rate scenario that I refer to as a bigger risk is one in which the troubled US housing market could play a major role. The graph below shows the sorry state of the US housing market. Wells Fargo surveys home builder confidence and they, similar to households, prime market.
Home Equity Loan Rates Rising mortgage rates, deepening affordability issues and the retreat of investors/speculators from the marketplace have prompted single-family home builders to further adjust their perspectives on the new-home market, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for June, released today. The HMI declined four points from an upwardly revised reading in the previous month to hit 42 for the latest report, its lowest mark since April 1995.
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Homeowner Loans "Based on historical experience, particularly the 1994-95 episode, the pronounced pattern of movement in the HMI is not inconsistent with the reasonably orderly cooling-down process we're projecting for home sales and single-family housing starts in 2006," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "We now expect new-home sales to be off by 13 percent from the record posted in 2005. Single-family starts, supported by large builder backlogs of unfilled orders and some continuing reconstruction in the wake of last year's hurricanes, should be down by about 9 percent from the 2005 record."
---------- Decline Line is useful for determining the strength of the market. When more stocks are advancing (increasing in price) than declining, the value increases. When more stocks are decreasing in price, the value decreases. Decline Line can be compared to current price trends to determine if there is support for those trends. For example, when prices are increasing, Decline Line is decreasing, a decreasing number of stocks are participating in the price increasing. Therefore, the price trend will typically begin to reverse.
Equity Loan Rates "These forecasts naturally are subject to a considerable degree of risk," added Seiders. "The downside risks include the potential for large numbers of sales cancellations and re-sales by the investor/speculator group as well as more aggressive tightening of monetary policy than we're assuming in our baseline forecast."
Let's look at Lennar. (LEN) The home builder, like most peers, 2005. The stock remains about 65% off its peak as the industry suffers through a deep slowdown. Even declines in interest rates, historically a plus for builders, haven't helped the industry yet. Anyone buying additional shares the past two years has just lost more money. The smarter option was to just walk away, perhaps book some profits, and look elsewhere.
Student Consolidation Loans "Looking at today's numbers, it's important to keep one thing in perspective," added NAHB President David Pressly, a home builder from Statesville, N.C. "The HMI is a measure of builder sentiment - and attitudes may vary by a greater degree than actual market activity."
Second Mortgages Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for close to 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
Federal Consolidation Loan All three component indexes declined in June, falling to their lowest levels since early 1995. The index gauging current sales was down three points to 47, while the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months fell five points to 50 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers declined four points, to 29.
Equity Loan The decline in builder confidence was broad-based and registered in every region this month. The HMI fell seven points to 40 in the Northeast, four points to 25 in the Midwest, two points to 49 in the South and one point to 61 in the West. These regional indexes are all down by similar amounts from their 1995 highs, and the relatively low levels for the Midwest and Northeast reflect relatively weak economic conditions in those parts of the country.
Refinancing With Bad Credit Source: NAHB
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